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The production of complex astronomical data is accelerating, especially with newer telescopes producing ever more large-scale surveys. The increased quantity, complexity, and variety of astronomical data demand a parallel increase in skill and sophistication in developing, deciding, and deploying statistical methods. Understanding limitations and appreciating nuances in statistical and machine learning methods and the reasoning behind them is essential for improving data-analytic proficiency and acumen. Aiming to facilitate such improvement in astronomy, we delineate cautionary tales in statistics via six maxims, with examples drawn from the astronomical literature. Inspired by the significant quality improvement in business and manufacturing processes by the routine adoption of Six Sigma, we hope the routine reflection on these Six Maxims will improve the quality of both data analysis and scientific findings in astronomy. 

ABSTRACT The local distance ladder estimate of the Hubble constant (H0) is important in cosmology, given the recent tension with the early universe inference. We estimate H0 from the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) distance ladder, inferring SN Ia distances with the hierarchical Bayesian SED model, BayeSN. This method has a notable advantage of being able to continuously model the optical and near-infrared (NIR) SN Ia light curves simultaneously. We use two independent distance indicators, Cepheids or the tip of the red giant branch (TRGB), to calibrate a Hubble-flow sample of 67 SNe Ia with optical and NIR data. We estimate H0 = 74.82 ± 0.97 (stat) $$\pm \, 0.84$$ (sys) km $${\rm s}^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$ when using the calibration with Cepheid distances to 37 host galaxies of 41 SNe Ia, and 70.92 ± 1.14 (stat) $$\pm \, 1.49$$ (sys) km $${\rm s}^{-1}\, {\rm Mpc}^{-1}$$ when using the calibration with TRGB distances to 15 host galaxies of 18 SNe Ia. For both methods, we find a low intrinsic scatter σint ≲ 0.1 mag. We test various selection criteria and do not find significant shifts in the estimate of H0. Simultaneous modelling of the optical and NIR yields up to ∼15  per cent reduction in H0 uncertainty compared to the equivalent optical-only cases. With improvements expected in other rungs of the distance ladder, leveraging joint optical-NIR SN Ia data can be critical to reducing the H0 error budget. 

Abstract We present Young Supernova Experimentgrizyphotometry of SN 2021hpr, the third Type Ia supernova sibling to explode in the Cepheid calibrator galaxy, NGC 3147. Siblings are useful for improving SN-host distance estimates and investigating their contributions toward the SN Ia intrinsic scatter (post-standardization residual scatter in distance estimates). We thus develop a principled Bayesian framework for analyzing SN Ia siblings. At its core is the cosmology-independent relative intrinsic scatter parameter,σ_Rel: the dispersion of siblings distance estimates relative to one another within a galaxy. It quantifies the contribution toward the total intrinsic scatter,σ₀, from within-galaxy variations about the siblings’ common properties. It also affects the combined distance uncertainty. We present analytic formulae for computing aσ_Relposterior from individual siblings distances (estimated using any SN model). Applying a newly trainedBayeSNmodel, we fit the light curves of each sibling in NGC 3147 individually, to yield consistent distance estimates. However, the wideσ_Relposterior meansσ_Rel≈σ₀is not ruled out. We thus combine the distances by marginalizing overσ_Relwith an informative prior:σ_Rel∼U(0,σ₀). Simultaneously fitting the trio’s light curves improves constraints on distanceandeach sibling’s individual dust parameters, compared to individual fits. Higher correlation also tightens dust parameter constraints. Therefore,σ_Relmarginalization yields robust estimates of siblings distances for cosmology, as well as dust parameters for sibling–host correlation studies. Incorporating NGC 3147's Cepheid distance yieldsH₀= 78.4 ± 6.5 km s⁻¹Mpc⁻¹. Our work motivates analyses of homogeneous siblings samples, to constrainσ_Reland its SN-model dependence. 

Abstract We present preexplosion optical and infrared (IR) imaging at the site of the type II supernova (SN II) 2023ixf in Messier 101 at 6.9 Mpc. We astrometrically registered a ground-based image of SN 2023ixf to archival Hubble Space Telescope (HST), Spitzer Space Telescope (Spitzer), and ground-based near-IR images. A single point source is detected at a position consistent with the SN at wavelengths ranging from HSTRband to Spitzer 4.5μm. Fitting with blackbody and red supergiant (RSG) spectral energy distributions (SEDs), we find that the source is anomalously cool with a significant mid-IR excess. We interpret this SED as reprocessed emission in a 8600R_⊙circumstellar shell of dusty material with a mass ∼5 × 10⁻⁵M_⊙surrounding a $\log \left(L/L_{\odot }\right)=4.74\pm 0.07$and $T_{\mathrm{eff}}={3920}_{-160}^{+200}$K RSG. This luminosity is consistent with RSG models of initial mass 11M_⊙, depending on assumptions of rotation and overshooting. In addition, the counterpart was significantly variable in preexplosion Spitzer 3.6 and 4.5μm imaging, exhibiting ∼70% variability in both bands correlated across 9 yr and 29 epochs of imaging. The variations appear to have a timescale of 2.8 yr, which is consistent withκ-mechanism pulsations observed in RSGs, albeit with a much larger amplitude than RSGs such asαOrionis (Betelgeuse). 

Abstract We present high-cadence ultraviolet through near-infrared observations of the Type Ia supernova (SN Ia) 2023bee atD= 32 ± 3 Mpc, finding excess flux in the first days after explosion, particularly in our 10 minutes cadence TESS light curve and Swift UV data. Compared to a few other normal SNe Ia with early excess flux, the excess flux in SN 2023bee is redder in the UV and less luminous. We present optical spectra of SN 2023bee, including two spectra during the period where the flux excess is dominant. At this time, the spectra are similar to those of other SNe Ia but with weaker Siii, Cii,and Caiiabsorption lines, perhaps because the excess flux creates a stronger continuum. We compare the data to several theoretical models on the origin of early excess flux in SNe Ia. Interaction with either the companion star or close-in circumstellar material is expected to produce a faster evolution than observed. Radioactive material in the outer layers of the ejecta, either from double detonation explosion or from a⁵⁶Ni clump near the surface, cannot fully reproduce the evolution either, likely due to the sensitivity of early UV observable to the treatment of the outer part of ejecta in simulation. We conclude that no current model can adequately explain the full set of observations. We find that a relatively large fraction of nearby, bright SNe Ia with high-cadence observations have some amount of excess flux within a few days of explosion. Considering potential asymmetric emission, the physical cause of this excess flux may be ubiquitous in normal SNe Ia. 

Abstract We present photometric and spectroscopic observations of Supernova 2020oi (SN 2020oi), a nearby (∼17 Mpc) type-Ic supernova (SN Ic) within the grand-design spiral M100. We undertake a comprehensive analysis to characterize the evolution of SN 2020oi and constrain its progenitor system. We detect flux in excess of the fireball rise model δ t ≈ 2.5 days from the date of explosion in multiband optical and UV photometry from the Las Cumbres Observatory and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory, respectively. The derived SN bolometric luminosity is consistent with an explosion with M ej = 0.81 ± 0.03 M ⊙ , E k = 0.79 ± 0.09 × 10 51 erg s −1 , and M Ni56 = 0.08 ± 0.02 M ⊙ . Inspection of the event’s decline reveals the highest Δ m 15,bol reported for a stripped-envelope event to date. Modeling of optical spectra near event peak indicates a partially mixed ejecta comparable in composition to the ejecta observed in SN 1994I, while the earliest spectrum shows signatures of a possible interaction with material of a distinct composition surrounding the SN progenitor. Further, Hubble Space Telescope pre-explosion imaging reveals a stellar cluster coincident with the event. From the cluster photometry, we derive the mass and age of the SN progenitor using stellar evolution models implemented in the BPASS library. Our results indicate that SN 2020oi occurred in a binary system from a progenitor of mass M ZAMS ≈ 9.5 ± 1.0 M ⊙ , corresponding to an age of 27 ± 7 Myr. SN 2020oi is the dimmest SN Ic event to date for which an early-time flux excess has been observed, and the first in which an early excess is unlikely to be associated with shock cooling. 

Ground-based observatories will discover thousands of transients in the optical, but will not provide the NIR photometry and high-resolution imaging of a space-based observatory. WFIRST can fill this gap. With its SN Ia survey, WFIRST will also discover thousands of other transients in the NIR, revealing the physics for these high-energy events.